rondi adamson.ca

It's interesting -- I had a couple of conversations last week with people (one of whom was my brother) who told me that Ford could not win. I was certain that he would and certain that he would win by a bigger margin than the polls were suggesting. What I believed -- and I think I have been proven correct -- was that people were not willing to admit to pollsters (or to TV cameras) that they were voting for Ford.

In 2004, two weeks before the U.S. election, I was talking to a man from Boston (he was working in Toronto). At the time, the polls had George Bush and John Kerry neck and neck, or even had Kerry a bit ahead. The media were predicting a Kerry victory and gleefully hoping it would be a reverse of 2000 -- i.e., that Bush would win the popular vote but not the Electoral College. So I asked this man from Boston -- Kerry's state and one of the most latte-drinking states in the union -- what he thought would happen. Without hesitation he said, "Bush will win and with a convincing margin." I was shocked and mentioned the polls. He said, again without hesitation, "People don't want to admit that they are voting for Bush. But they will vote for him." And he was right. And I was glad.

With candidates that people look down on -- especially those that are held in contempt by leftists and intellectuals -- there is always the likelihood that those polled won't answer honestly. I suspect there was a good deal of that with Reagan, as well.